You may believe that our culture is changing in North America and that consumers will vote with their feet for lower-cost, lower-impact, greener ways to travel (like electric cycling.) Or you may think it’s a fad. I believe in these changes, but you don’t need to. There are two other changes coming that are really beyond debate, and they’re why the community of electric cyclists (and the electric cycling industry) will grow strongly over the next several years.
The first is demographic change. The Baby Boom generation has been nothing if not active, and it isn’t getting any younger. Of course, only a tiny fraction of older cyclists will look for an electric assist to help keep their pedals moving, but a tiny fraction of a fast-growing number is a fast-growing number too. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2008 projections, there will be a third more Americans over 60 in ten year’s time than there are now. Two thirds more in twenty years. Electric bikes will certainly be a part of meeting the needs of this active and aging. All the more so because of the second change that’s coming.
The second is reduced Li-Ion battery costs. Most light-weight electric cycling systems are based on Li-Ion or similar batteries. Their high cost is a very large part of why many high-quality electric cycles are so expensive. In an odd turn, the auto industry is cycling’s savior in this. Governments and corporations the world over are working frantically to reduce these to meet the needs of electric cars (and capture their share of future markets for hybrid and full-electric cars.) Electric bikes use the same batteries — we just need a lot less of them. It’s tough to completely separate the facts and the hype in this hyper-competitive market, but it’s clear that the cost of these batteries will be cut in half – perhaps by 2015, perhaps sooner.
Clearly the bicycle industry has noticed. The National Bicycle Dealer’s Association’s 2008 Industry Overview (http://nbda.com/page.cfm?pageid=34 ) describes the roughly $6 billion U.S. bicycle industry as generally stable in recent years, but points out that “new niche markets also exist and continue to have great potential, including electric bicycles.” Hobbyists and specialty manufacturers have crafted high-quality electric bikes for years, but main-line bicycle manufactures have gotten the message too. Schwinn, and Giant have had electric bikes in their lines for some time, and now Trek joins them with their 2010 offerings.
Older cyclists are only part of the electric cycling community, and the recession has slowed many things in our economy. That said, there are early signs of an economic thaw (and bicycle sales have remained strong throughout anyway.) The increasing number of older cyclists who want to remain active and the reduced costs for powerful, lightweight batteries can only mean strong growth for the electric cycling community and the electric cycling industry in the years ahead.
It’s an exciting time for our tiny community! Please join us at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum to talk about these trends and more.
Charlie
Tags: Bicycles, Bicycling, Cycling, Demographics, Electric, Trends