It also says:

But there may be a greater challenge for companies like Sanyo and other e-bike makers. People tend to think of their transportation, like their clothes or cellphones, as an expression of their identity.

In China, riding an electric bike conveys professional achievement, even a certain degree of wealth. People in the United States, said Ed Benjamin, an independent consultant in the bike business, don’t quite know whether these bikes are fashionable. The e-bike is “an ambiguous statement,” Mr. Benjamin said.

Ed is a pretty smart guy and goes back a while with electric bicycles. (Among other things he’s a board member of the Light Electric Vehicle Association, of which I’m a member.)

He is completely correct. Riding a hybrid electric bicycle in the U.S. today is indeed an “ambiguous statement”. Does it mean you’re green, or that you’re not a fully able cyclist? Does it mean that you’re working hard do get one more car off the road, or that you’re not willing to do the work of pedalling your bike like every other cyclist? Does it make you cool and trendy or really, really nerdy?

China has recently been considering tighter regulations on electric bicycles, at least in part because of fears that it will make riders fat. (Their standard of comparison is the regular bicycle, a key part of the Chinese transportation system.) Our situation in the U.S. is very different. Our primary goal should be to get more commuters out of their cars — we’d be lucky if bicycling for transportation was so entrenched in our culture that we were concerned about the fitness impacts of electrically-assisted bicycles.

We need to help frame the choice of riding an electrically-assisted bicycle in the U.S. differently. (Indeed, this applies equally to commuting on sturdy european-style commuting bicycles with fenders, lights, and comfortable geometries — not what usually sells in U.S. bicycle shops.) We need to cast the choice to commute on an electrically-assisted bicycle as a worthy alternative to commuting by car, as a way to encourage exercise by getting people out of their cars, and as a way to reduce environmental footprints by using the same expensive lithium batteries that would power a single hybrid or all-electric car to assist a much larger number of electric cyclists.

Got any ideas on how we can help encourage changing attitudes toward electrically-assisted cycling? Please join our community and help share them at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum.

Along with a book signing for David Byrne’s recent book Bicycle Diaries, this event launched Cities for Cycling, a National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO) project aimed at fostering bicycle-friendly street design.

The discussion took place in a glass-walled 7^th floor conference room in Washington DC’s Newseum with a fabulous view of the Capitol.  The room was packed.  (It’s hard to say if it would have been quite as packed without Mr. Byrne.)

Each member of the panel made a short presentation.  Mr. Byrne’s focused on urban design and how it can work well or poorly for bikes.  Congressman Blumenauer, founder of the Congressional Bike Caucus spoke of cycling-friendly  provisions in the next highway bill, and asked his essential cycling question: How many people are stuck in traffic right now on their way to the gym so they can ride their stationary bicycles?  Commissioner Sadik-Khan highlighted cycling-friendly improvements she has helped push through in New York City as well as her work with NACTO and Cities for Cycling.

My principal comment for the panel was that they were preaching to the choir in that room full of transportation planners.  Well less than half of American adults actually cycle, and fewer still actually cycle for transportation from point A to point B.  In addition to improving our physical infrastructure, we need to look for strategies to get more people cycling.  A quarter of all bikes now sold in Holland are electric-assist bikes.  For aging baby-boomers and others an electric assist may make the difference and help get folks out of their cars and on to their bikes.

The most interesting response was from Commissioner Sadik-Khan.  She emphasized the need for safe routes for cycling in the first place, but also expressed support for electric cycling.  That gave me an opportunity to point out that electric cycling is currently illegal on public streets in New York, and that we really need national guidance to ensure that electrically-assisted cycling can be part of the solution nationwide.  (We spoke afterwards.  She understands the issue and expects it to be resolved in New York “very soon”.)

I was glad to be able to get the words “electric bicycle” into this national conversation.  We’ll clearly need to do more, but it’s a start. Please share your own thoughts on this in our discussion forums at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum.

Charlie

Much has changed in a hundred years.  Global warming and carbon footprints, the geopolitics of petroleum, cities clogged with cars, and an active baby boom generation that wants to stay active are all hot topics now.  Together with significant technology improvements, they’re also all excellent reasons why more and more folks will consider electric cycling in the years ahead.

Why are electric bicycles are still rarities in North America today?  They can be quite expensive, largely because powerful, lightweight batteries are so expensive.  They can be quite heavy, especially if they don’t use the lightest-weight batteries because of their costs.  Or they can be of limited quality if manufacturers cut corners to try to keep costs down.  There have been relatively few places that sell them, and fewer still that repair them.  Our domestic market has been dominated by specialty manufacturers and by do-it-yourselfers.  Many have turned out some terrific rides, but they haven’t been ready for mass markets.

But lithium battery prices have dropped steadily, and those costs are expected to continue to decline under pressure from the electric car market.  A growing ecologically sensitive class, expanded interest in cities and “new urbanism”, and the dramatic rise in the numbers of older citizens as the baby boom matures all represent opportunities for electric bike manufacturers, and the main-line bicycle industry clearly knows it.

I had to drive 23 miles from my suburban Maryland home to find a shop that knew electric bikes a year or two back.  Now a good local bike shop 6 miles from my door has a nice new electric Trek in stock.  So do several other shops around town.  Most customers in those local ships find the electric models odd and overpriced, but not all of them.  As costs drop, quality increases, and distribution limitations are resolved a new class of electric cyclists will be joining the long-time members of our group.

Long-time electric cyclists need to recognize that our community is poised for rapid change – it will be larger, and it will also be different.  Many newcomers will follow our footsteps, tinkering and upgrading and tweaking the technology to meet their needs.  Others will just want a better vehicle to get them where they want to go.  They are likely to be more interested in where they are allowed to ride their electric bikes than they are in amp-hours or torque.  They are likely to be more interested in how they can store their expensive rides safely when commuting than in the details of battery management systems.  Soon I believe they will outnumber the traditional tinkerers – and that will be all to the good.

Our community has a lot of work to do.  We need to raise awareness of electric cycling among city planners and transportation planners.  (We ought to be able to get them as excited about electric bikes as they seem to be about electric cars.  They aren’t today, and they should be.) We need clear guidance for local police and for the insurance industry to minimize confusion about what we can and cannot do.  We need to end misconceptions about the safety of electric bikes and to promote an image of electric bikes as effective transportation tools instead of expensive toys.  And we need to reach out to the existing cycling advocacy organizations to help make all of this happen.

Please join the discussion on our forums at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum , and lets work together to support our expanding community.

The first is demographic change.  The Baby Boom generation has been nothing if not active, and it isn’t getting any younger.   Of course, only a tiny fraction of older cyclists will look for an electric assist to help keep their pedals moving, but a tiny fraction of a fast-growing number is a fast-growing number too.   According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2008 projections, there will be a third more Americans over 60 in ten year’s time than there are now.  Two thirds more in twenty years.  Electric bikes will certainly be a part of meeting the needs of this active and aging.  All the more so because of the second change that’s coming.

The second is reduced Li-Ion battery costs.  Most light-weight electric cycling systems are based on Li-Ion or similar batteries.  Their high cost is a very large part of why many high-quality electric cycles are so expensive.  In an odd turn, the auto industry is cycling’s savior in this.  Governments and corporations the world over are working frantically to reduce these to meet the needs of electric cars (and capture their share of future markets for hybrid and full-electric cars.)   Electric bikes use the same batteries — we just need a lot less of them.  It’s tough to completely separate the facts and the hype in this hyper-competitive market, but it’s clear that the cost of these batteries will be cut in half – perhaps by 2015, perhaps sooner.

Clearly the bicycle industry has noticed.  The National Bicycle Dealer’s Association’s 2008 Industry Overview (http://nbda.com/page.cfm?pageid=34 ) describes the roughly $6 billion U.S. bicycle industry as generally stable in recent years, but points out that “new niche markets also exist and continue to have great potential, including electric bicycles.”  Hobbyists and specialty manufacturers have crafted high-quality electric bikes for years, but main-line bicycle manufactures have gotten the message too.  Schwinn, and Giant have had electric bikes in their lines for some time, and now Trek joins them with their 2010 offerings. 

Older cyclists are only part of the electric cycling community, and the recession has slowed many things in our economy.  That said,  there are early signs of an economic thaw (and bicycle sales have remained strong throughout anyway.)  The increasing number of older cyclists who want to remain active and the reduced costs for powerful, lightweight batteries can only mean strong growth for the electric cycling community and the electric cycling industry in the years ahead.

It’s an exciting time for our tiny community! Please join us at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum  to talk about these trends and more.

Charlie