Seems like a funny time for electric cyclists nowadays. You couldn’t swing a stick at Interbike this year without hitting an ebike. Same for Eurobike. It seems that all kinds of wonderful new bikes and gear are coming from familiar ebike vendors, newcomers, and from mainstream manufacturers.
I look at the recently-announced Bionx stuff, for example, and wonder “If I had waited, the system I have on my own bike now would be notably lighter and more ergonomic. Should I have waited?” Should potential buyers wait until the new toys displayed at the shows actually show up?
The bicycle industry is a bit different than the electronics industry, and bike vendors may not be thinking that the Osborne Effect applies to their industry. For better or worse, I think it really does apply to ebikes now.
Some of us are old enough to remember Adam Osborne and the way-cool Osborne 1 computer his company sold in the early ‘80s: a 24-pound portable with a 5” CRT screen! It was fabulous product in a new and growing market segment. Not a lot of folks had them, but the ones that did were early adopters and loved them. In a great many respects, the early Osborne computer owners were a lot like today’s electric cyclists.
Then in 1983 Osborne announced new models (no doubt in response to competition from the likes of Kaypro and Compaq.) The new models would outperform the old ones and be way cooler. The problem was that they still had a lot of the old ones to sell and none of the new ones – game over for Mr. Osborne.
The conventional bicycle industry is very slow moving compared to the world of electronics. Although there are exceptions, most buyers aren’t all that hung up on the differences between that 2011 Trek and the 2010 model — largely because the differences are usually very minor. But all that changes once you add electronics.
New ebikes promise more range, less weight, better ergonomics, better integration with underlying bicycle, and more style (or more stealth.) These are all differences consumers can really see. Just as with smart phones or flat screen TVs, there is a very real tendency for buyers to wait until that very next model they’ve heard of comes out before they buy.
Winter isn’t that far away, and buyers in many parts of North America will be hunkering down until spring. (Those of us who ride year-round: feel free to smile here.) But should buyers wait for the lighter-faster-cooler-slicker-in-every-way models yet to come?
Everyone needs to reach their own conclusion. For me, waiting would have been a real shame. I’ve gotten good service from my existing setup (especially now that I seem to be getting past some health issues and riding more.) Though the recently-demoed Bionx gear may be a pound or two lighter, I’ve lost a lot more weight than that just by becoming a more regular cyclist. And last I checked that cool new stuff isn’t actually available just yet.
Just as with phones and TVs, there will always be newer models with better features. My recommendation: the right time to buy is when you’re ready to ride. Sure, don’t buy the last of an old model without negotiating a discount or waiting a few weeks, but don’t lose sleep over it either. There’s always the eBay/Craigslist upgrade: When you absolutely need the new model, sell your old one and buy the new one. Think of the difference between what you pay new and what you sell it for used as the cost of leasing it. No matter what anyone says, technology purchases are fleeting and better thought of as rentals than purchases.
Now put on some warmer clothes if you need them and go ride.
Charlie