The future continues to look bright for an expanding electric cycling community. Prices for good lithium-based batteries continue to drop (slowly) and the population of aging baby boomers with knees that could use a little boost continues to grow (steadily.) Increasing numbers of players are entering the ebike technology marketplace – bike makers and parts companies large and small, established ebike technology sellers, and lots of new entrants including several car companies. Far too many manufacturers are chasing new ebike business, and it’ll take some time for winners and losers to sort themselves out. With continued pressure on gas prices and continued focus on car-free and car-light living in many urban areas, there are plenty of reasons to expect the numbers of people using electrified rides to grow; it’s just a little early to bet on what brand names will be on their rides.

But over the last year or so the pace of actual change – on the road, in bicycle shops, and in ebike community sites – has seemed to be relatively modest. There are improvements in motors and batteries, but largely incremental ones. A few more ebike-oriented shops have opened, but not too many. More traditional bike shops have ebikes on the floor, but typically only one or two. My subjective impression has been of modest growth, quite possibly the calm before the storm.

We’re confident that we’ll see a future with lots more electric cycling for transportation and recreation, but based on recent experience we’re thinking that it might take a little while to get there, so ElectricCyclist.com will be hibernating for a while. We’ll check back from time to time, but we’re settling back to watch the ebike market mature for a while.

In the meantime, enjoy the ride (and feel free to let us know if you’re interested in electric cycling bumper stickers.)

Charlie

I look at the recently-announced Bionx stuff, for example, and wonder “If I had waited, the system I have on my own bike now would be notably lighter and more ergonomic. Should I have waited?” Should potential buyers wait until the new toys displayed at the shows actually show up?

The bicycle industry is a bit different than the electronics industry, and bike vendors may not be thinking that the Osborne Effect applies to their industry. For better or worse, I think it really does apply to ebikes now.

Some of us are old enough to remember Adam Osborne and the way-cool Osborne 1 computer his company sold in the early ‘80s: a 24-pound portable with a 5” CRT screen! It was fabulous product in a new and growing market segment. Not a lot of folks had them, but the ones that did were early adopters and loved them. In a great many respects, the early Osborne computer owners were a lot like today’s electric cyclists.

Then in 1983 Osborne announced new models (no doubt in response to competition from the likes of Kaypro and Compaq.) The new models would outperform the old ones and be way cooler. The problem was that they still had a lot of the old ones to sell and none of the new ones – game over for Mr. Osborne.

The conventional bicycle industry is very slow moving compared to the world of electronics. Although there are exceptions, most buyers aren’t all that hung up on the differences between that 2011 Trek and the 2010 model — largely because the differences are usually very minor. But all that changes once you add electronics.

New ebikes promise more range, less weight, better ergonomics, better integration with underlying bicycle, and more style (or more stealth.) These are all differences consumers can really see. Just as with smart phones or flat screen TVs, there is a very real tendency for buyers to wait until that very next model they’ve heard of comes out before they buy.

Winter isn’t that far away, and buyers in many parts of North America will be hunkering down until spring. (Those of us who ride year-round: feel free to smile here.) But should buyers wait for the lighter-faster-cooler-slicker-in-every-way models yet to come?

Everyone needs to reach their own conclusion. For me, waiting would have been a real shame. I’ve gotten good service from my existing setup (especially now that I seem to be getting past some health issues and riding more.) Though the recently-demoed Bionx gear may be a pound or two lighter, I’ve lost a lot more weight than that just by becoming a more regular cyclist. And last I checked that cool new stuff isn’t actually available just yet.

Just as with phones and TVs, there will always be newer models with better features. My recommendation: the right time to buy is when you’re ready to ride. Sure, don’t buy the last of an old model without negotiating a discount or waiting a few weeks, but don’t lose sleep over it either. There’s always the eBay/Craigslist upgrade: When you absolutely need the new model, sell your old one and buy the new one. Think of the difference between what you pay new and what you sell it for used as the cost of leasing it. No matter what anyone says, technology purchases are fleeting and better thought of as rentals than purchases.

Now put on some warmer clothes if you need them and go ride.

Charlie

Following a back-to-back test of electric cars, electric motorcycles and an electric bicycle this week, the Environmental Transport Association (ETA) concluded that the bicycle offered the best application of the technology.

See the full article here.  And discuss it in our forums here.

Charlie

I think that’s culturally significant in and of itself. And I’d think so even if they hadn’t asked me to write the article.

I had the opportunity to do extended interviews with several of these cyclists, and there’s lots more to tell. Watch for more detailed stories about some of these riders coming up in the weeks ahead in the Electric Cyclist discussion forums here at http://electriccyclist.com/forum.

Most of the early comments talk about infrastructure (roads and repair shops, for example) and lack of understanding (or intelligence) among the broader cycling community.  My own comments spoke to the lack of understanding on the part of the folks in the business of selling bicycles in this country.  Once retailers understand that there is more money in selling bikes with lithium batteries than with carbon fiber frames, I expect sales patterns will shift.  The major bike manufacturers have clearly figured this out.  (Trek and Giant, for example.)

But I see another perspective at http://DigitalTrends.com.  They’re not a bike place at all.  Their catchphrase is “upgrade your lifestyle”.  And they are now talking up cool ebikes just as they do cool phones, cool cameras, and cool cars. See their “Electric Bikes 101 at Kalkhoff ebikes” story. (Their video is below — sorry about the advertising.)  Kalkhoff is a respected German “pedelec” manufacturer, and they’ve now opened their first U.S. store (in Portland, of course.)

My take on these two pieces together:  The hobby enthusiasts may lead the way in pushing for high performance at low costs, but it’s the broader culture that will make or break sales of ebikes in North America.  Ebikes are starting to show signs of actually becoming cool.  When that happens, the broader market will snap up far more name-brand ebikes than the technology enthusiasts have ever assembled on their own.

What’s yours?  Please share your thoughts in the ElectricCyclist forums.

Charlie

What you won’t find much of are the stories of the people who ride those electric bicycles.   Who are they?  Why do they ride, and what kind of riding do they do?  You might not want to post your full name and address on the web, but wouldn’t it be nice if other electric cyclists could see themselves – and you – as a part of a rich and varied community?

This link sends you to a discussion on ElectricCyclist.com where you can read my story and share yours.  If enough of us belly up to the bar, we’ll gain a picture of our community that we may not have had before.  And maybe some friends to help entice ebike business folks to better meet our needs.  Maybe even some help in educating regulators and others about what we’re really doing on those electric bikes of ours.

Please join the conversation and be sure your voice is heard.

The good news: They highlight a couple of older cyclists who use electric-assist bikes to keep on rolling, and also electric-assist utility cycles for commercial delivery use.

The bad new: The idea clearly just doesn’t work for one of the newscasters. (Be sure to watch the clip through to the end.)

Particularly when broadcast from a Los Angeles area station, his remark brings Congressman Earl Blumenauer’s famous question to mind:

“How many people are stuck in traffic on their way to ride a stationary bike at a health club?”

I’m glad the folks profiled in their story are enjoying their rides and getting their exercise. Perhaps that newscaster would profit from doing the same.

What do you think? Please visit our forums and share it!

Charlie

It also says:

But there may be a greater challenge for companies like Sanyo and other e-bike makers. People tend to think of their transportation, like their clothes or cellphones, as an expression of their identity.

In China, riding an electric bike conveys professional achievement, even a certain degree of wealth. People in the United States, said Ed Benjamin, an independent consultant in the bike business, don’t quite know whether these bikes are fashionable. The e-bike is “an ambiguous statement,” Mr. Benjamin said.

Ed is a pretty smart guy and goes back a while with electric bicycles. (Among other things he’s a board member of the Light Electric Vehicle Association, of which I’m a member.)

He is completely correct. Riding a hybrid electric bicycle in the U.S. today is indeed an “ambiguous statement”. Does it mean you’re green, or that you’re not a fully able cyclist? Does it mean that you’re working hard do get one more car off the road, or that you’re not willing to do the work of pedalling your bike like every other cyclist? Does it make you cool and trendy or really, really nerdy?

China has recently been considering tighter regulations on electric bicycles, at least in part because of fears that it will make riders fat. (Their standard of comparison is the regular bicycle, a key part of the Chinese transportation system.) Our situation in the U.S. is very different. Our primary goal should be to get more commuters out of their cars — we’d be lucky if bicycling for transportation was so entrenched in our culture that we were concerned about the fitness impacts of electrically-assisted bicycles.

We need to help frame the choice of riding an electrically-assisted bicycle in the U.S. differently. (Indeed, this applies equally to commuting on sturdy european-style commuting bicycles with fenders, lights, and comfortable geometries — not what usually sells in U.S. bicycle shops.) We need to cast the choice to commute on an electrically-assisted bicycle as a worthy alternative to commuting by car, as a way to encourage exercise by getting people out of their cars, and as a way to reduce environmental footprints by using the same expensive lithium batteries that would power a single hybrid or all-electric car to assist a much larger number of electric cyclists.

Got any ideas on how we can help encourage changing attitudes toward electrically-assisted cycling? Please join our community and help share them at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum.

We bought our lovely blue Prius hybrid because it’s environmentally green. If the recently-announced plug-in version had been available we’d have considered that too, but we already have a great plug-in hybrid vehicle. It’s enormously greener than any Prius will ever be, and it’s greener than all-electric cars like the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt as well.

My preferred commuting vehicle has a 355 Watt-hour battery, but the primary engine is me because it’s an electrically-assisted bicycle. Some question the environmental sensibilities of cyclists who commute with electric batteries and motors on their bicycles. Many of those doing the questioning commute via Prius themselves; many more commute in vehicles that are a lot less green. Good-quality electric bicycles typically use the same kinds of batteries as hybrid-electric and all-electric cars, so let’s compare the environmental burdens posed by the batteries in each kind of vehicle.

My electric bicycle uses a lithium-based battery similar to the one planned for the plug-in Prius. It has a reasonably typical 355 Watt-hour capacity. The older-style nickel metal hydride battery in today’s hybrid Prius has capacity of 1,310 Watt-hours, enough for some 3.7 electric bicycles. (Some cyclists use cells from salvaged Prius battery packs to power their electric bikes today — they’re pretty good.) Most auto trips still carry a single occupant, and the same batteries that can help move one car and driver could help move more than three times as many cyclists. Bicycles take up much less room on our public roads than cars and require vastly less energy and materials to manufacture. They consume much less energy overall, and unlike sitting in a car bicycle riding actually contributes to public health. I use approximately $0.03 worth of electricity on a relatively long 28-mile round trip electrically-assisted bicycle commute.

But consider the plug-in version of the Prius. Toyota has announced that its lithium-based battery pack will have a 5,200 Watt-hour capacity, enough to power about 15 reasonably typical electrically-assisted bicycles. 15! If folks who are willing to pay the added costs of plug-in hybrid cars are considered environmentally virtuous, what shall we say for folks who are willing to pay the added costs of expanding the range and versatility of their bicycles by adding 1/15^th the battery capacity of a plug-in Prius to their own hybrid-electric rides? Surely the public infrastructure costs of a few extra bicycle racks and improved bike lanes pale before the costs of expanded electric power transmission capacity and dedicated charging facilities for electric cars. And surely the impact of increased electric bicycle demands for the lithium batteries and the resources used to create them will be trivial compared to the impacts of increased demands from plug-in hybrid and all-electric cars.

For comparison, the forthcoming all-electric Nissan Leaf will have a 24,000 Watt-hour lithium battery pack. It’ll be a real step forward for reducing auto tailpipe emissions, but that same battery pack would power 68 electric bicycles! (At 16,000 Watt-hours, a Chevy Volt would power 45.) Wouldn’t it be good public policy to ensure that a significant share of those lithium battery cells are used on efficient, compact, light-weight electric bicycles instead?

We’re not ready to sell our Prius, but these comparisons put the environmental footprint of electric bicycles in a whole new light. If even a tiny fraction of cyclists use electrically-assisted bicycles as alternatives to cars the public benefits can be very real. It’s past time for nationally-consistent guidance encouraging the use of electrically-assisted bicycles in the U.S. Let’s help get a few more people out of their cars – hybrid, plug-in, or otherwise — and on to their bicyles!

Please join us in our forums at http://electriccyclist/forum to carry on this conversation and encourage support for the expansion of the electric cycling community in the U.S. (Alternatively, come and see how many electric bikes you could power with the battery pack from a single Tesla Roadster.)

Along with a book signing for David Byrne’s recent book Bicycle Diaries, this event launched Cities for Cycling, a National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO) project aimed at fostering bicycle-friendly street design.

The discussion took place in a glass-walled 7^th floor conference room in Washington DC’s Newseum with a fabulous view of the Capitol.  The room was packed.  (It’s hard to say if it would have been quite as packed without Mr. Byrne.)

Each member of the panel made a short presentation.  Mr. Byrne’s focused on urban design and how it can work well or poorly for bikes.  Congressman Blumenauer, founder of the Congressional Bike Caucus spoke of cycling-friendly  provisions in the next highway bill, and asked his essential cycling question: How many people are stuck in traffic right now on their way to the gym so they can ride their stationary bicycles?  Commissioner Sadik-Khan highlighted cycling-friendly improvements she has helped push through in New York City as well as her work with NACTO and Cities for Cycling.

My principal comment for the panel was that they were preaching to the choir in that room full of transportation planners.  Well less than half of American adults actually cycle, and fewer still actually cycle for transportation from point A to point B.  In addition to improving our physical infrastructure, we need to look for strategies to get more people cycling.  A quarter of all bikes now sold in Holland are electric-assist bikes.  For aging baby-boomers and others an electric assist may make the difference and help get folks out of their cars and on to their bikes.

The most interesting response was from Commissioner Sadik-Khan.  She emphasized the need for safe routes for cycling in the first place, but also expressed support for electric cycling.  That gave me an opportunity to point out that electric cycling is currently illegal on public streets in New York, and that we really need national guidance to ensure that electrically-assisted cycling can be part of the solution nationwide.  (We spoke afterwards.  She understands the issue and expects it to be resolved in New York “very soon”.)

I was glad to be able to get the words “electric bicycle” into this national conversation.  We’ll clearly need to do more, but it’s a start. Please share your own thoughts on this in our discussion forums at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum.

Charlie