I look at the recently-announced Bionx stuff, for example, and wonder “If I had waited, the system I have on my own bike now would be notably lighter and more ergonomic. Should I have waited?” Should potential buyers wait until the new toys displayed at the shows actually show up?

The bicycle industry is a bit different than the electronics industry, and bike vendors may not be thinking that the Osborne Effect applies to their industry. For better or worse, I think it really does apply to ebikes now.

Some of us are old enough to remember Adam Osborne and the way-cool Osborne 1 computer his company sold in the early ‘80s: a 24-pound portable with a 5” CRT screen! It was fabulous product in a new and growing market segment. Not a lot of folks had them, but the ones that did were early adopters and loved them. In a great many respects, the early Osborne computer owners were a lot like today’s electric cyclists.

Then in 1983 Osborne announced new models (no doubt in response to competition from the likes of Kaypro and Compaq.) The new models would outperform the old ones and be way cooler. The problem was that they still had a lot of the old ones to sell and none of the new ones – game over for Mr. Osborne.

The conventional bicycle industry is very slow moving compared to the world of electronics. Although there are exceptions, most buyers aren’t all that hung up on the differences between that 2011 Trek and the 2010 model — largely because the differences are usually very minor. But all that changes once you add electronics.

New ebikes promise more range, less weight, better ergonomics, better integration with underlying bicycle, and more style (or more stealth.) These are all differences consumers can really see. Just as with smart phones or flat screen TVs, there is a very real tendency for buyers to wait until that very next model they’ve heard of comes out before they buy.

Winter isn’t that far away, and buyers in many parts of North America will be hunkering down until spring. (Those of us who ride year-round: feel free to smile here.) But should buyers wait for the lighter-faster-cooler-slicker-in-every-way models yet to come?

Everyone needs to reach their own conclusion. For me, waiting would have been a real shame. I’ve gotten good service from my existing setup (especially now that I seem to be getting past some health issues and riding more.) Though the recently-demoed Bionx gear may be a pound or two lighter, I’ve lost a lot more weight than that just by becoming a more regular cyclist. And last I checked that cool new stuff isn’t actually available just yet.

Just as with phones and TVs, there will always be newer models with better features. My recommendation: the right time to buy is when you’re ready to ride. Sure, don’t buy the last of an old model without negotiating a discount or waiting a few weeks, but don’t lose sleep over it either. There’s always the eBay/Craigslist upgrade: When you absolutely need the new model, sell your old one and buy the new one. Think of the difference between what you pay new and what you sell it for used as the cost of leasing it. No matter what anyone says, technology purchases are fleeting and better thought of as rentals than purchases.

Now put on some warmer clothes if you need them and go ride.

Charlie

Along with a book signing for David Byrne’s recent book Bicycle Diaries, this event launched Cities for Cycling, a National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO) project aimed at fostering bicycle-friendly street design.

The discussion took place in a glass-walled 7^th floor conference room in Washington DC’s Newseum with a fabulous view of the Capitol.  The room was packed.  (It’s hard to say if it would have been quite as packed without Mr. Byrne.)

Each member of the panel made a short presentation.  Mr. Byrne’s focused on urban design and how it can work well or poorly for bikes.  Congressman Blumenauer, founder of the Congressional Bike Caucus spoke of cycling-friendly  provisions in the next highway bill, and asked his essential cycling question: How many people are stuck in traffic right now on their way to the gym so they can ride their stationary bicycles?  Commissioner Sadik-Khan highlighted cycling-friendly improvements she has helped push through in New York City as well as her work with NACTO and Cities for Cycling.

My principal comment for the panel was that they were preaching to the choir in that room full of transportation planners.  Well less than half of American adults actually cycle, and fewer still actually cycle for transportation from point A to point B.  In addition to improving our physical infrastructure, we need to look for strategies to get more people cycling.  A quarter of all bikes now sold in Holland are electric-assist bikes.  For aging baby-boomers and others an electric assist may make the difference and help get folks out of their cars and on to their bikes.

The most interesting response was from Commissioner Sadik-Khan.  She emphasized the need for safe routes for cycling in the first place, but also expressed support for electric cycling.  That gave me an opportunity to point out that electric cycling is currently illegal on public streets in New York, and that we really need national guidance to ensure that electrically-assisted cycling can be part of the solution nationwide.  (We spoke afterwards.  She understands the issue and expects it to be resolved in New York “very soon”.)

I was glad to be able to get the words “electric bicycle” into this national conversation.  We’ll clearly need to do more, but it’s a start. Please share your own thoughts on this in our discussion forums at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum.

Charlie

Please visit our discussion forums and share your own thoughts with us.

The first is demographic change.  The Baby Boom generation has been nothing if not active, and it isn’t getting any younger.   Of course, only a tiny fraction of older cyclists will look for an electric assist to help keep their pedals moving, but a tiny fraction of a fast-growing number is a fast-growing number too.   According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2008 projections, there will be a third more Americans over 60 in ten year’s time than there are now.  Two thirds more in twenty years.  Electric bikes will certainly be a part of meeting the needs of this active and aging.  All the more so because of the second change that’s coming.

The second is reduced Li-Ion battery costs.  Most light-weight electric cycling systems are based on Li-Ion or similar batteries.  Their high cost is a very large part of why many high-quality electric cycles are so expensive.  In an odd turn, the auto industry is cycling’s savior in this.  Governments and corporations the world over are working frantically to reduce these to meet the needs of electric cars (and capture their share of future markets for hybrid and full-electric cars.)   Electric bikes use the same batteries — we just need a lot less of them.  It’s tough to completely separate the facts and the hype in this hyper-competitive market, but it’s clear that the cost of these batteries will be cut in half – perhaps by 2015, perhaps sooner.

Clearly the bicycle industry has noticed.  The National Bicycle Dealer’s Association’s 2008 Industry Overview (http://nbda.com/page.cfm?pageid=34 ) describes the roughly $6 billion U.S. bicycle industry as generally stable in recent years, but points out that “new niche markets also exist and continue to have great potential, including electric bicycles.”  Hobbyists and specialty manufacturers have crafted high-quality electric bikes for years, but main-line bicycle manufactures have gotten the message too.  Schwinn, and Giant have had electric bikes in their lines for some time, and now Trek joins them with their 2010 offerings. 

Older cyclists are only part of the electric cycling community, and the recession has slowed many things in our economy.  That said,  there are early signs of an economic thaw (and bicycle sales have remained strong throughout anyway.)  The increasing number of older cyclists who want to remain active and the reduced costs for powerful, lightweight batteries can only mean strong growth for the electric cycling community and the electric cycling industry in the years ahead.

It’s an exciting time for our tiny community! Please join us at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum  to talk about these trends and more.

Charlie