The future continues to look bright for an expanding electric cycling community. Prices for good lithium-based batteries continue to drop (slowly) and the population of aging baby boomers with knees that could use a little boost continues to grow (steadily.) Increasing numbers of players are entering the ebike technology marketplace – bike makers and parts companies large and small, established ebike technology sellers, and lots of new entrants including several car companies. Far too many manufacturers are chasing new ebike business, and it’ll take some time for winners and losers to sort themselves out. With continued pressure on gas prices and continued focus on car-free and car-light living in many urban areas, there are plenty of reasons to expect the numbers of people using electrified rides to grow; it’s just a little early to bet on what brand names will be on their rides.

But over the last year or so the pace of actual change – on the road, in bicycle shops, and in ebike community sites – has seemed to be relatively modest. There are improvements in motors and batteries, but largely incremental ones. A few more ebike-oriented shops have opened, but not too many. More traditional bike shops have ebikes on the floor, but typically only one or two. My subjective impression has been of modest growth, quite possibly the calm before the storm.

We’re confident that we’ll see a future with lots more electric cycling for transportation and recreation, but based on recent experience we’re thinking that it might take a little while to get there, so ElectricCyclist.com will be hibernating for a while. We’ll check back from time to time, but we’re settling back to watch the ebike market mature for a while.

In the meantime, enjoy the ride (and feel free to let us know if you’re interested in electric cycling bumper stickers.)

Charlie

I think that’s culturally significant in and of itself. And I’d think so even if they hadn’t asked me to write the article.

I had the opportunity to do extended interviews with several of these cyclists, and there’s lots more to tell. Watch for more detailed stories about some of these riders coming up in the weeks ahead in the Electric Cyclist discussion forums here at http://electriccyclist.com/forum.

Most of the early comments talk about infrastructure (roads and repair shops, for example) and lack of understanding (or intelligence) among the broader cycling community.  My own comments spoke to the lack of understanding on the part of the folks in the business of selling bicycles in this country.  Once retailers understand that there is more money in selling bikes with lithium batteries than with carbon fiber frames, I expect sales patterns will shift.  The major bike manufacturers have clearly figured this out.  (Trek and Giant, for example.)

But I see another perspective at http://DigitalTrends.com.  They’re not a bike place at all.  Their catchphrase is “upgrade your lifestyle”.  And they are now talking up cool ebikes just as they do cool phones, cool cameras, and cool cars. See their “Electric Bikes 101 at Kalkhoff ebikes” story. (Their video is below — sorry about the advertising.)  Kalkhoff is a respected German “pedelec” manufacturer, and they’ve now opened their first U.S. store (in Portland, of course.)

My take on these two pieces together:  The hobby enthusiasts may lead the way in pushing for high performance at low costs, but it’s the broader culture that will make or break sales of ebikes in North America.  Ebikes are starting to show signs of actually becoming cool.  When that happens, the broader market will snap up far more name-brand ebikes than the technology enthusiasts have ever assembled on their own.

What’s yours?  Please share your thoughts in the ElectricCyclist forums.

Charlie

What you won’t find much of are the stories of the people who ride those electric bicycles.   Who are they?  Why do they ride, and what kind of riding do they do?  You might not want to post your full name and address on the web, but wouldn’t it be nice if other electric cyclists could see themselves – and you – as a part of a rich and varied community?

This link sends you to a discussion on ElectricCyclist.com where you can read my story and share yours.  If enough of us belly up to the bar, we’ll gain a picture of our community that we may not have had before.  And maybe some friends to help entice ebike business folks to better meet our needs.  Maybe even some help in educating regulators and others about what we’re really doing on those electric bikes of ours.

Please join the conversation and be sure your voice is heard.

The good news: They highlight a couple of older cyclists who use electric-assist bikes to keep on rolling, and also electric-assist utility cycles for commercial delivery use.

The bad new: The idea clearly just doesn’t work for one of the newscasters. (Be sure to watch the clip through to the end.)

Particularly when broadcast from a Los Angeles area station, his remark brings Congressman Earl Blumenauer’s famous question to mind:

“How many people are stuck in traffic on their way to ride a stationary bike at a health club?”

I’m glad the folks profiled in their story are enjoying their rides and getting their exercise. Perhaps that newscaster would profit from doing the same.

What do you think? Please visit our forums and share it!

Charlie

It also says:

But there may be a greater challenge for companies like Sanyo and other e-bike makers. People tend to think of their transportation, like their clothes or cellphones, as an expression of their identity.

In China, riding an electric bike conveys professional achievement, even a certain degree of wealth. People in the United States, said Ed Benjamin, an independent consultant in the bike business, don’t quite know whether these bikes are fashionable. The e-bike is “an ambiguous statement,” Mr. Benjamin said.

Ed is a pretty smart guy and goes back a while with electric bicycles. (Among other things he’s a board member of the Light Electric Vehicle Association, of which I’m a member.)

He is completely correct. Riding a hybrid electric bicycle in the U.S. today is indeed an “ambiguous statement”. Does it mean you’re green, or that you’re not a fully able cyclist? Does it mean that you’re working hard do get one more car off the road, or that you’re not willing to do the work of pedalling your bike like every other cyclist? Does it make you cool and trendy or really, really nerdy?

China has recently been considering tighter regulations on electric bicycles, at least in part because of fears that it will make riders fat. (Their standard of comparison is the regular bicycle, a key part of the Chinese transportation system.) Our situation in the U.S. is very different. Our primary goal should be to get more commuters out of their cars — we’d be lucky if bicycling for transportation was so entrenched in our culture that we were concerned about the fitness impacts of electrically-assisted bicycles.

We need to help frame the choice of riding an electrically-assisted bicycle in the U.S. differently. (Indeed, this applies equally to commuting on sturdy european-style commuting bicycles with fenders, lights, and comfortable geometries — not what usually sells in U.S. bicycle shops.) We need to cast the choice to commute on an electrically-assisted bicycle as a worthy alternative to commuting by car, as a way to encourage exercise by getting people out of their cars, and as a way to reduce environmental footprints by using the same expensive lithium batteries that would power a single hybrid or all-electric car to assist a much larger number of electric cyclists.

Got any ideas on how we can help encourage changing attitudes toward electrically-assisted cycling? Please join our community and help share them at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum.

Please visit our discussion forums and share your own thoughts with us.

The first is demographic change.  The Baby Boom generation has been nothing if not active, and it isn’t getting any younger.   Of course, only a tiny fraction of older cyclists will look for an electric assist to help keep their pedals moving, but a tiny fraction of a fast-growing number is a fast-growing number too.   According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2008 projections, there will be a third more Americans over 60 in ten year’s time than there are now.  Two thirds more in twenty years.  Electric bikes will certainly be a part of meeting the needs of this active and aging.  All the more so because of the second change that’s coming.

The second is reduced Li-Ion battery costs.  Most light-weight electric cycling systems are based on Li-Ion or similar batteries.  Their high cost is a very large part of why many high-quality electric cycles are so expensive.  In an odd turn, the auto industry is cycling’s savior in this.  Governments and corporations the world over are working frantically to reduce these to meet the needs of electric cars (and capture their share of future markets for hybrid and full-electric cars.)   Electric bikes use the same batteries — we just need a lot less of them.  It’s tough to completely separate the facts and the hype in this hyper-competitive market, but it’s clear that the cost of these batteries will be cut in half – perhaps by 2015, perhaps sooner.

Clearly the bicycle industry has noticed.  The National Bicycle Dealer’s Association’s 2008 Industry Overview (http://nbda.com/page.cfm?pageid=34 ) describes the roughly $6 billion U.S. bicycle industry as generally stable in recent years, but points out that “new niche markets also exist and continue to have great potential, including electric bicycles.”  Hobbyists and specialty manufacturers have crafted high-quality electric bikes for years, but main-line bicycle manufactures have gotten the message too.  Schwinn, and Giant have had electric bikes in their lines for some time, and now Trek joins them with their 2010 offerings. 

Older cyclists are only part of the electric cycling community, and the recession has slowed many things in our economy.  That said,  there are early signs of an economic thaw (and bicycle sales have remained strong throughout anyway.)  The increasing number of older cyclists who want to remain active and the reduced costs for powerful, lightweight batteries can only mean strong growth for the electric cycling community and the electric cycling industry in the years ahead.

It’s an exciting time for our tiny community! Please join us at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum  to talk about these trends and more.

Charlie

This is a resource for the growing community of electric cyclists, and we’d love for you to be a part of it.  It doesn’t matter if you’re a long-time tinkerer or simply enjoy an electric boost when you ride.  (Window shoppers are welcome too.)

The heart of this site is our discussion forum at http://ElectricCyclist.com/forum.   Please check it out, register, and join the conversation.